Reading path

How to read a risk or benefit number

Almost every health headline is a number about risk. This path is the toolkit for reading those numbers without being misled by the framing.

The path, step by step

1 Absolute Versus Relative Risk, and the One Question That Cuts Through the Hype
7 min read
The single most useful question to ask: half of what?
2 Number Needed to Treat: How Many People to Help One
6 min read
Benefit expressed as people treated for one to gain.
3 Number Needed to Harm, and How to Read It Against Number Needed to Treat
6 min read
The same idea applied to side effects and harms.
4 Understanding Hazard Ratios, and How They Differ From Risk Ratios
6 min read
What a hazard ratio does and does not tell you over time.
5 Relative Risk Versus Odds Ratio, and Why They Stop Agreeing When an Outcome Is Common
6 min read
Two ratios that are often confused, and when each is used.
6 What a Confidence Interval Is Not, and How to Read It as a Measure of Precision
6 min read
How far the true estimate could plausibly sit from the point estimate.
7 Surrogate Endpoints Versus Outcomes in Diabetes Trials
6 min read
Whether the number measures something that matters to patients.

Each step is a full article on the Reading the Evidence blog.